Perhaps it’s about time we stop feeling so negative when it comes to the future of BBC’s Sherlock. Yes, I know, we have yet to receive any confirmation whatsoever of a Season 5; that’ll definitely make things difficult. But shouldn’t we at least try to remain optimistic? Perhaps Moffat is just messing with us; maybe there is a fifth season in the works, and they’re just keeping it quiet for some
cruel reasons. Regardless, let’s theorize, using a bit of math; numbers can’t lie, right?
Season 1 of our beloved show aired 7 years ago, from October 24 2010, until November 7 2010.
Season 2 aired from May 6 to May 20 of 2012, about 1.5 years later.
Another year and a half passed, then Season 3 aired from January 19 to February 2 of 2014.
Skip ahead two full years, to 2016, January 1. Season 4 begins, sort of. Actually, we get 1 episode. That’s it.
Finally, we get Season 4, airing from January 1 to January 15, 2017, another full year after the one-off episode.
It appears as though Seasons 1, 2, and 3 followed a pretty simple release timeline. Three episodes aired in consecutive weeks, then a year and a half wait between seasons, then repeat. Not ideal, but let’s admit it, those seasons were well worth every minute of waiting.
But then we have Season 4 that just throws any concept of an organized timeline out the window. TWO years pass, and that wait is rewarded with a holiday special. Then it’s yet another year until the full season is released.
If we theorize that Seasons 1-3 were following a certain pattern, and that the transition to Season 4 was actually the start of another pattern, we can try to estimate when and how a Season 5 might be happening. Since we’re dealing with Moffat numbers, rather than the standard numbers we’re all used to, we’re going to estimate higher. Please note that these numbers do not take into consideration the variables of the actors’ scheduling conflicts, or the apparent power-tripping/somewhat evil minds of showrunners.
Since there was a 2 year wait between Seasons 3 and 4, let’s say it’ll be another 2.5 years between 4 and 5. That puts us sometime in the fall of 2019. It’s probably safe to assume that, at this point, we’d be getting something like a teaser trailer, a mini-episode, or if you really want to be optimistic, another holiday special.
After that, let’s say it’s another 2 years. The year 2021. Maybe then, finally, Season 5 will grace our screens for a beautiful 3 weeks… Just think about that for now. Don’t think about the potential wait after that too…
So… how’s the optimism thing working out for you? Yeah, me neither. Time to curl up in a blanket and binge watch the entire show in a pool of tears.