The end of 2025 is rapidly approaching, and with it comes another conclusion…one that most of us are both anxiously awaiting and quietly dreading: the finale of Netflix’s Stranger Things. The end of something so good is always hard to accept, but I have a feeling Stranger Things is going to make its farewell unforgettable in the most inspiring yet heartbreaking way possible. Since its release in 2016, this coming-of-age story has made it a point to end each season in such a way, and the majority of those episodes included the loss of a beloved character.
If you’re wondering who might not make it this time around, you’re in the right place. After rewatching the first four seasons and thoroughly searching the trailers for clues, here is my take on who is most likely to make it out of the Upside Down alive and who isn’t.
Most Likely To Survive ✅
Nancy Wheeler
Survival Likelihood: 90%
In my opinion, Nancy is one of the most underrated characters. Even in the show itself, she is constantly underestimated and treated as if she is inadequate simply because she is a female existing in the 80s. Essentially, she is the embodiment of Taylor Swift’s song ‘The Man’ because if she were a man, she definitely would be the man.
The most recent trailer shows us a lot of Nancy. One of the more concerning scenes shows her visibly upset, washing blood off her hands. This alludes to her definitely being involved in the final fight against the inhabitants of the Upside Down, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that she is in grave danger. If anything, that particular scene made me more concerned for characters close to her.
The other notable clip was a deep moment between her and Jonathan. It looked as if it was one of those pre-battle heart-to-hearts that can sometimes hint at a future loss of one of those characters. In this case, out of the two, I think Nancy is the safest. There is a clear love triangle with her at the center, and typically that would mean she needs to survive so we can see who she chooses or possibly…who she loses.
However! The Duffer Brothers have been known to step out of the box when it comes to usual plotlines, so it is still possible that something happens to Nancy. Honestly, I would love it if I’m wrong and she ends up making the ultimate sacrifice, saving everyone like the boss that she is.
Lucas Sinclair
Survival Likelihood: 85%
Lucas has been the most grounded member of the core friend group since the beginning. He was always the one to proceed with caution, especially as things began to spiral into the unknown. In the fourth season, he veered off course a bit from his usual loyal role when he was seen attempting to juggle basketball and his true D&D friends, but he eventually got back on track and chose friendship over popularity. Although it did backfire a bit when the basketball captain attacked him and stopped him from saving Max from Vecna in time.
So now his girlfriend is in a coma, and the Upside Down has swallowed Hawkins–will Lucas continue to be the strong, emotionally stable rock of the group in order to help defeat Vecna? It is likely we will see a small crack in his emotional maturity as he deals with the pain and likely guilt for not rescuing Max, but if anything, that might make him even more courageous than ever. Could that lead to his death, though? Probably not. There haven’t been any signs that I’ve noticed that allude to his death, and with his character arc, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense after almost losing Max–unless, of course, he sacrifices himself for her (hence the 15% wiggle room.)
Mike Wheeler
Survival Likelihood: 80%
Mike has been the unspoken leader of the original core friend group since the beginning. Without his belief and support in Eleven, the world probably would have been swallowed by the Upside Down years ago. He is the anchor for her, but also for everyone watching, because he has been a steady force despite the madness and sadness that befalls them all.
As such a key character, one might assume he could be at risk in a show where they like to shock us with unexpected deaths–but in this case, I don’t think he is. He is seen often in the trailers, but even more so, his death would change all of the other characters in a way that just wouldn’t conclude their characters properly. Lucas, Will, and Dustin would forever be wandering around without their Paladin. And Eleven…well, she might even open a portal to a monster-filled otherworld again out of uncontrollable grief. Additionally, there is a popular ‘light theory’ that I fully believe in that would indicate that Mike lives. But more on that later.
The wiggle room here is because of what could be a full-circle moment for his character. In season one, he takes on the role of the protector for El, sometimes stepping in to save her when no one else does, even though he was just a boy then. Years later, he could be placed in a situation where he once again becomes the protector and steps up, now as a man, to protect El once more.
Jim Hopper
Survival Likelihood: 70%
Hopper is a character who we first saw at his lowest point in life. He had lost his daughter and his…and was just surviving. Somehow, as the show progressed and the small town of Hawkins fell into chaos, Hopper found purpose and happiness. He was gifted another daughter when taking in Eleven, and then he found love with Will’s mother, Joyce. So essentially, his emotional arc is complete, and that puts him slightly at risk for meeting the Grim Reaper.
In the trailers, we see him in his usual position in the center of the action in full tactical gear. This time around, he looks to be joined by Eleven. So yes, he will be in danger (as is pretty much everyone in Hawkins), but I think his death is fairly unlikely. At this point in the story, his death just wouldn’t be as impactful as some others. Not because he isn’t one of the best characters (because he totally is), but because he already ‘died’ at the end of season three. He helped destroy the lab’s portal to the Upside Down, had an epic sacrificial moment, and the following season began with the aftermath, showing how the characters handled the loss. Now that we found out the Russians had just kidnapped him and he is back to help in the culminating battle, it would just be weird for him to die again.
Somewhat Likely To Survive 😬
Max Mayfield
Survival Likelihood: 65%
I know what you’re thinking: Max is literally in a coma with a broken body…how is she so high up on this list? Honestly, simply because I’ve seen far too many episodes of Grey’s Anatomy, and I know comas for beloved characters aren’t as hard to overcome as one might assume. I think the moment she comes out of the coma will be a huge motivator for the group and could help push them to defeat Vecna.
Of course, the trailer shows only a few clips of her still unconscious, but that’s a given either way. If they showed her fighting a demigorgen, it would completely ruin the moment she wakes up because we would already be expecting it.
When it comes to her character arc, last season was huge for her. It started with her dealing with the loss of her brother, which had put her into a really dark place. This dark place made her the perfect target for Vecna, who was looking for people whom he could ‘end their suffering.’ But Max proved she isn’t the type to go down without a fight and managed to evade him with the help of Kate Bush. She shows a lot of strength and courage when she volunteers to be the bait for Vecna, which is how she ends up in a coma. Technically, her arc is mostly complete–but I think that they will keep her in a coma until the last few episodes, where she can wrap up her story with Lucas and join the ultimate Vecna showdown.
Jonathan Byers
Survival Likelihood: 60%
Will’s older brother, Jonathan, is one of the mentor characters who hasn’t had a huge spotlight in prior seasons. The lack of attention could be a good thing or a bad thing for his chance of survival–it could make him an easy target for sacrifice, but it could also make his sacrifice less impactful than a few other characters.
In the recent trailer, however, there are some red flags for Jonathan. As mentioned earlier, he is seen having a heart-to-heart with Nancy in what looks to be some sort of pre-battle conversation. This could signify that something does happen to one of them, and my money would be on Jonathan in this case. Removing one of the males from Nancy’s love triangle would make a lot more sense than removing Nancy. The second concerning clip shows Joyce crying over someone’s body. All we see of the body is a shoe, so it could be anyone, but it would make the most sense for it to be one of her sons, which could mean it’s Jonathan.
All in all, Jonathan is at risk, but I think he will probably be okay. As much as I hate to admit it, I think Jancy is endgame, which would mean that they both probably survive.
Joyce Byers
Survival Likelihood: 55%
This might be a hard take, but I think Will’s courageous mother could be on the chopping block. The trailer shows her several times, and nothing specific alludes to her death, but she is seen wielding an axe, which means she will be a part of the fight.
The main reason I think she could be at risk is that the show has a history of sacrificing strong adult/mentor characters. With this being the final season, this one can’t just be someone like Mike’s monotone father, who hasn’t created a strong emotional tie with the audience. It has to be someone unexpected, but also someone who will go in a way that makes us love them even more.
The thing about Joyce is that she has made one thing clear–she will go to the ends of the Earth to save those that she loves, especially her children. If a situation arises where Will, Jonathan, or even Eleven are in danger, Joyce is going to be the first one to jump into the fire to save them, and this time, I think she might not come out of it. This would be such a heartbreaking yet powerful moment that would shock us, but also inspire us at the same time.
Eleven
Survival Likelihood: 50%
When I think of Eleven, I think of an ultra rare, holographic Pokémon card; like if this were a card battle and your opponent brings her out–you know you’re done for. Without her, Hawkins and all of the characters we love just wouldn’t have been able to survive this long.
But, as Ben Parker would say, ‘with great power comes great responsibility.’ Eleven is constantly pushing herself to her maximum limit to save her friends because she knows she is the only one who truly stands a chance against Vecna and the Upside Down. There have been several times where it seemed like she was very close to death, but the show couldn’t allow that to happen until the very end because it couldn’t continue without her. Well…the end has finally arrived, and this could mean she finally pushes herself past her limit to defeat Vecna once and for all. The trailer features several clips of her, indicating she will definitely play a major role again this season and very likely make it to the last episode.
Technically, her character arc is almost complete. She and Mike finally admitted their love for one another, she found a family in Hopper, Joyce, and the rest of her friends, and she received closure with ‘Papa’ at the end of the last season. If she defeats Vecna, she will be fulfilled, which means she could either die or live happily ever after. Personally, I think it is going to be the latter. Eleven has been through way more than any child could ever fathom, and she deserves some peace at the end of it all.
Least Likely To Survive ☠️
Steve Harrington
Survival Likelihood: 25%
From what I have seen, Steve is the most popular choice for a Hero’s death in the finale. It’s perfect, really. He started as the jock that everyone couldn’t stand and slowly evolved into a seriously epic, kind-hearted protector. Just the type of guy that would end up sacrificing himself for everyone in the end. One theory is that, in a heart-to-heart with Nancy, Steve mentioned that he wanted six children one day…well, if he ends up dying, it might be to protect six children whom he has grown to love (Will, Mike, Lucas, Dusin, Max, and Eleven).
A major concern is his lack of screen time in the trailers. There is one clip of him holding Dustin, both of whom are a bit bruised, and it looks as if it is like one last goodbye between the two. In the most recent trailer, he is seen speeding into some sort of war zone. It could be his final ‘cool bro’ moment, similar to how Eddie fought off the bats like an epic D&D hero. We all know what happened to Eddie after that…
But! It is still possible that the creators are attempting to throw us off and not give away too much in the trailers. Honestly, I am really hoping that is the case because I am one of the few who believe in ‘Stancy’ instead of ‘Jancy.’
Dustin Henderson
Survival Likelihood: 20%
I suppose now is the time to mention what the ‘light theory’ involves. Netflix released a poster for season five a few months back–it showed Will, Mike, Dustin, and Lucas on their bikes under a cloud of Vecna. It didn’t take long for people to notice that only two of them had the lights on their bikes on–Dustin and Will. A similar poster was released for season four, and on that poster, the only one with a bike light was Eddie. Now that we know Eddie’s fate, the question remains: are these lights a bad omen for these characters’ future?
The trailer shows Dustin in several different clips, often with Steve, and given that it looked like they were having a sad goodbye…it could be that they are both at risk. To add to that fact, in an earlier season, Dustin told Steve, ‘If you die, I die.’
Dustin has been one of the most lovable characters since the beginning, and he is a key part of the main friend group–but that means that ending the show without him would have a huge impact. Additionally, his loss of Eddie in the last season will likely leave him with trauma that could make him the prime target for Vecna. The loss could also make him want to live up to Eddie’s memory if placed in a situation where he might have to sacrifice himself for his friends.
Will Byers
Survival Likelihood: 5%
Yes, I am putting most of my chips into Will being the show’s ultimate sacrifice. Besides the light theory placing him as a potential loss and the trailer clip of his mother lying over a boy’s body, crying, there are some other clues.
For one, the Harry Potter/Voldemort parallels between Will and Vecna are off the charts. Will has an unexplainable connection to the Upside Down and to Vecna himself to the point that he can physically feel Vecna’s presence. The trailer shows an intense scene in which Vecna holds Will aloft and tells him, “You will help me one last time,” a moment that mimics a scene from the ultimate battle against Voldemort.
It seems Vecna will definitely try to enact some sort of world-ending plan using Will as a pawn. Will he choose to sacrifice himself before Vecna can use him, or does Will realize that Vecna cannot die unless every piece of him dies, including the one that seems permanently bonded to his own body? Knowing that, he might have no choice but to sacrifice himself. The bright side is that Harry came back to life, right? Hopefully, Will can too!
