Game Theory Main Ideas

Game Theory, in short, is the mathematical study of strategic interactions between rational decision-makers, or “players,” where each player’s choices influence the outcomes for all participants. It’s often described as the “science of strategy.” It analyzes how individuals, businesses, or even countries make decisions by anticipating and considering the actions of others to achieve their own “payoffs” or best results. The theory was formally introduced by mathematician John von Neumann and economist Oskar Morgenstern, whose 1944 book, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, laid the groundwork for the field. Von Neumann first published on game theory in 1928, proving the minimax theorem, a key concept in zero-sum games. While others had considered strategic concepts earlier, Neumann and Morgenstern established game theory as a formal mathematical discipline.

Here are the key concepts of game theory:

  • Players: The individuals, groups, or entities making decisions. This could be people in a negotiation, companies in a market, or even countries in a conflict.
  • Strategies: The complete plan of action a player will take, given the possible actions of the other players.
  • Payoffs: The outcome or result of a given set of strategies. Payoffs can be positive (e.g., money, utility, satisfaction) or negative (e.g., loss of money, a bad outcome).
  • The “Game”: The entire situation, including the players, their possible strategies, and the resulting payoffs.

A good example of this would be The Prisoner’s Dilemma: This is the most famous example in game theory. Two suspects are arrested for a crime and interrogated in separate rooms. They are each offered a deal:

  • If both stay silent, they receive a very short prison sentence.
  • The rational choice for each individual is to betray the other, as it yields a better or equal outcome.
  • If one betrays their partner while the other stays silent:
    • The betrayer goes free.
    • The silent partner gets a long prison sentence.
  • If one stays silent and the other betrays:
    • The silent partner receives the long prison sentence.
    • The betrayer goes free.
  • If both betray each other, they both receive a moderate prison sentence.

Fool Me Once Synopsis

Fool Me Once on Netflix is a gripping mystery thriller that follows Maya Stern, a former military helicopter pilot whose life is shattered by two tragic events: the brutal murder of her husband, Joe, and the earlier killing of her sister, Claire. The show’s premise hinges on a startling discovery: a hidden nanny cam captures footage of Joe, who is supposed to be dead, playing with their young daughter, Lily. This impossible sight leads Maya down a rabbit hole of deceit and suspicion.

Driven to uncover the truth, Maya’s investigation pulls her into the dark secrets of Joe’s wealthy and powerful family, the Burketts, and their pharmaceutical empire, Burkett Global. As she digs deeper, she learns that her own military past is intertwined with the Burketts’ crimes, particularly the actions of a whistleblower named Corey Rudzinski who had previously exposed Maya for an on-duty incident. She realizes that both her husband and her sister were tied to a long-running corporate cover-up, with Joe himself being a key figure in a series of shocking murders.

The narrative unravels a complex web of lies, red herrings, and shocking betrayals. Detective Sergeant Sami Kierce, who is investigating Joe’s murder, struggles with his own personal issues and begins to suspect Maya, creating a tense cat-and-mouse dynamic. The ultimate revelation is that the nanny cam footage was a deepfake created by the Burketts to test Maya. However, the biggest twist is that Maya herself killed Joe after she discovered he was responsible for her sister’s death. In a final, daring move, Maya exposes the entire family by live-streaming their confessions to the world, a last act of justice that costs her her life.

Playing the Game

The show “Fool Me Once” on Netflix, based on the novel by Harlan Coben, can be analyzed through the lens of game theory, particularly in the interactions between its characters. The plot for the show is driven by a series of strategic decisions, misdirection, and hidden information—all key components of the theory. Here’s how the series ties into game theory:

1. The “Game” and its “Players”: The central conflict of the show is a high-stakes “game” of deception and revelation. The main players are:

  • Maya Stern: A former military pilot and the protagonist, seeking to uncover the truth about her husband’s and sister’s murders.
  • The Burkett Family: A wealthy and powerful family with deep, dark secrets, particularly matriarch Judith and her surviving son, Neil.
  • Detective Sergeant Sami Kierce: The police officer investigating Joe’s murder, who is also dealing with his own health issues and suspects Maya.
  • Joe Burkett (deceased, but a key player): His past actions and crimes are the source of the entire plot, and his “moves” from beyond the grave continue to influence the game.
  • Corey the Whistle: A whistleblower who holds critical information and acts as a hidden player, observing and influencing the game from the outside.

2. Asymmetric Information and Deception A core concept in game theory is asymmetric information, where one player has more information than another. This is the foundation of the show’s entire mystery.

  • Maya’s Secret: Maya is initially presented as a grieving widow, but the audience and the other characters are not aware that she is the one who killed her husband, Joe. She makes her moves—such as reporting the “robbery” and interacting with the police—based on this secret information.
  • The Burkett Family’s Secrets: The Burketts appear to be a respectable, powerful family, but they are hiding a history of corruption and murder, covering up Joe’s past crimes to protect their pharmaceutical company.
  • The Nanny Cam: The “nanny cam” footage of the seemingly-alive Joe is a classic example of deception and a strategic move. The Burketts orchestrate a deepfake video to manipulate Maya, testing her reaction and trying to confirm their suspicions that she is lying about Joe’s death.

3. The Prisoner’s Dilemma and Trust The show features numerous situations that are variations of the Prisoner’s Dilemma, where individuals must decide whether to cooperate or betray each other for their own best interest.

  • Maya and the Burketts: Maya and the Burketts are in a zero-sum game for a large part of the show. They both have secrets they want to protect, and they know that the other side is a threat. They make moves to gain an advantage, with each side’s payoff depending on the other’s actions. The show’s climax is a grand confrontation where Maya proposes a “deal” to the Burketts, but it’s a strategic feint to get them to confess.
  • “Tit-for-Tat”: The title of the show itself, “Fool Me Once,” is a well-known proverb that reflects the “tit-for-tat” strategy in game theory. It suggests that while a person may fall for a deception once, they will be more cautious and retaliatory the second time. Maya’s journey is a direct embodiment of this: she realizes she was fooled by Joe and her in-laws, and she devises a plan to retaliate and expose them.

4. The Final “Game” and its Payoffs The show’s final scene is a perfect example of a strategic game played to its conclusion.

  • Maya’s Strategy: Maya’s ultimate goal is not just to get a confession from the Burketts but to expose them to the world. She knows she is in danger, but she plans her final move meticulously. She uses a hidden camera (provided by Corey) to live-stream the confrontation, creating a scenario where the Burketts believe they are only talking to her, but their actions are being broadcast to millions.
  • The Burketts’ “Dominant Strategy”: The Burketts’ final act is an attempt to use violence to solve their problem, with Neil shooting Maya. From their perspective, this is a rational, albeit immoral, move to eliminate the threat. However, they fail to account for the “move” that Maya had already made—the live-stream.
  • The “Payoff”: Maya’s “payoff” is not her survival but the successful exposure of the Burketts’ crimes. She sacrifices her life for this outcome. The Burketts’ “payoff” is the complete opposite of what they intended—their secrets are revealed, and they face legal consequences.

Fool Me Once plays out the theory throughout the series perfectly. Its plot is an intricate web of strategic decisions, misinformation, and calculated risks. Each character’s actions and reactions are part of a complex “game” with hidden rules, and the final outcome is the result of a series of strategic choices, culminating in a powerful, game-theoretic climax.