Dial of Destiny came out recently and a lot of the conversation around it hasn’t been about the film’s quality, but rather how disastrous at its box office has been. It has made around 300 million in the span of over a few weeks on a budget of over 300 million. For a film to be financially successful, it has to make over twice its budget or more to cover marketing. Given the fact that the film premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in France a month before its wide release, Disney had expectations for this movie to perform. Now it might end up as a huge loss for the company.
While the reasons for the film’s costs are a bit hazy in terms of its production, the reasons why people didn’t flock to theaters for this film could be easy to spot. The lack of a modern presence for the franchise, Crystal Skull underwhelming excitement for future installments, and the Cannes premiere having a mixed response permeate for a month are all factors. However, the big reason for Dial’s underperformance is simply that it’s another film in a long line of attempts by studios to focus on nostalgia and sequels. While this has been something that had brought in money and success for studios over the past decade, it seems that Dial came out at the worst time for it with public interest declining over these types of films. Disney wanted this movie to perform big based on the perception that it was a beloved franchise coming back but seemed to only bank on that without assuming if it would be enough.
However, films performing like this are not an isolated incident. Many big-budgeted films as of late have underperformed both due to fatigue regarding the state of the franchise-focused industry as well as many people having not come back to theaters after COVID due to streaming and other alternatives. Film productions on blockbusters have gotten more expensive, but the returns seemed to have declined as of late. While this has been a problem for a lot of studios, Disney in particular is the studio that might be the most heavily affected by these concerns due to the fact that they have put all their eggs into the franchise and brand recognition basket.
Disney has focused far more on blockbusters and brand names compared to other studios. Sequels to their animated films, remakes of their classic animated films, and films from their Marvel and Star Wars franchises. Outside of that, there has been very little development on original films aside from the occasional animated ones. While all of this has resulted in Disney making more money than ever at the box office with multiple films a year making billions, it has also resulted in their long-term theatrical plans resting on these types of films. The model of focusing on big-budgeted franchises and sequels results in a diluted schedule and while this was sustainable for a while, a few recent circumstances have indicated that it’s on shaky ground.
Take Marvel for instance. Arguably the main force behind Disney’s’ dominance in the current landscape. From The Avengers to Black Panther, these films have provided a large outlet for cultural relevance that the studio has relied on and a continual well to go back to for revenue given the interconnected nature of the franchise. Even then though, the fixation on the series as a continual stream for revenue has led to a problem: oversaturation. With its success, Disney focused a lot of resources on the Marvel brand and increased the production of films as well as new streaming shows to prop up their new streaming service Disney+. Recently, the studio has produced more content for the series in a few short years than in the entirety of its first decade of existence. Given the rapid release, production was also quicker resulting in films that were worse from a writing and visual standpoint. All of this was done to keep pace with the perceived demand and growth created by the initial success. However, this has also resulted in fatigue over the series and public interest declining. Plus, the projects started to focus more on setting up and teasing future films and characters over the present quality of the story and characters. Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania is a great example of this as it spends a lot of time setting up the overarching villain for the next phase, Kang, but feels inconsequential otherwise in terms of Ant-Man himself and the purpose of the film outside of set up. Given that the film not only underperformed but received some of the worst reviews for any MCU film up until that point, it seems that this element of Marvel has also overstayed its welcome. For many in the general public, Endgame felt like a proper conclusion and just don’t feel that the series in its current state is worth sticking to which is a problem when more movies are being made with fewer people going to see them. While there are still occasional hits from the movies, there is weariness around them from public conversation.
The shows, however, have compounded this problem since Disney expected them to be a new supplement alongside the movies. However, given that they also see the problems of rushed production and focus on setup, it has exacerbated the declining interest in Marvel especially given that multiple shows are a larger commitment than one or two movies a year. Releasing multiple shows to boost the Disney+ service and expand the brand further is not a bad idea, but it was a matter of release proximity and quality. Fans can only watch so much and if they feel overwhelmed by a glut of mostly average content released at a breakneck pace, then they will likely watch even less. Even Disney has admitted that they need to cut back on how much they spend on these projects and the amount released per year. It puts Marvel in a place where, while they are still successful, it feels like the hype and global investment have diminished mostly due to how the studio thought releasing so much so quickly was a good idea and believing that brand loyalty would remain in spite of it. Given that Marvel is a core element of Disney’s overall business, it creates an issue where the series, in spite of still being highly profitable, has likely lost pace and might not reach the heights it did before in terms of visibility and audience engagement. This is concerning in the sense that the franchise is being counted on to continually grow for the sake of business, but seems to have hit a plateau.
The same issue of oversaturation and rapid release could be said for Star Wars as well. The whole reason Disney purchased Lucasfilm was to take advantage of the franchise and the new movies and shows they could make including a new mainline trilogy and spinoff films focusing on other characters and events. However, the production fiasco of Solo and the mixed response to The Last Jedi resulted in spinoff films being shelved and the 9th film of the trilogy, Rise of Skywalker, being a rushed mess that left most fans dissatisfied. As a result, in spite of the money most of them brought in, the current state of the films is in flux due to uncertainty of how to move forward after the initial plans fell apart. Disney rushed in without a plan and changed so much on the fly which resulted in a worse product and now most fans are either indifferent to a future movie or adamantly don’t want one. The focus on the brand carrying in success rather than being careful with it has put the future of Star Wars movies into uncertain waters.
Even with that though, the tv shows have not helped the franchise either. While The Mandalorian proved to be a unique success, the focus shifted soon after on producing more shows in a similar way to Marvel in terms of quantity over quality. Plus, the overall approach to Star Wars has been very nostalgia focused. Most, if not all of the shows or movies have fixated on trying to bring back older characters or stories as both an overcorrection to the long-time criticism of the prequel films and even The Last Jedi’s storytelling choices. This focus contributed even more to the oversaturation and fatigue, especially with how rushed and uninspired many of the shows felt. Something like The Book of Boba Fett feels less like someone had a story worth telling and more like something that was greenlit since the fans liked the character and wanted him to be the focus of a project. It feels that Star Wars is trapped in its past and is either afraid or unwilling to move forward. Considering that Andor, the show with the least number of connections to the original film series, was the most acclaimed and successful of the new batch of shows, proves that there is potential in Star Wars that is still untapped. Even then, like with Marvel, the mixed batch of projects coming out so rapidly has diluted potential excitement. While Star Wars will always remain profitable in merchandise, the lack of momentum regarding their films and the state of the shows is a cause for concern especially with how much they spent to buy Lucasfilm in the first place.
So, the two big franchises are in a bit of flux at the moment, but that’s not the only issue as Disney’s animation department has also seen similar problems. While there have been a few successful original films from the studio, a few issues as of late have put the studios on thin ice, especially regarding their visibility. The focus on sequels and franchises was financially beneficial for a long time, but recently there is an argument to be made that it has harmed the potential to create new long-lasting characters to replace them once the current ones fizzle out.
Take Pixar for example. Back in the 2000s, they were practically the dominant name in family entertainment. They turned unconventional films into huge hits both critically and financially. However, after the Disney buyout, the focus shifted away from original projects in favor of sequels to their prior films. While Pixar has gained a lot of box office success from this, not many of the films have managed to create a similar cultural impact. Not only that, but it has diluted potential future projects. The studio was focused so much on sequels that they made fewer original films meaning that the perception in public changed from the studio being a haven for original stories to that of a sequel factory. The sustained success of the sequels also created a mindset focused on short-term gains and created a sense of apathy with original projects from the larger company compared to franchise films. This was on full display Disney put 3 original Pixar films onto Disney+ and had Lightyear, a spinoff to their most successful film series under the assumption that this would be the way to maximize profit under the pretense of the brand being the only sell. And yet, Lightyear was a massive financial failure, and the films released to Disney+ were received much better, but couldn’t reach a wider audience due to only being available on a streaming platform that had a limited user base.
The push for Disney+ regarding Pixar may have also hurt the potential for original films as well. This issue can be seen with Elemental. While this film has managed to perform decently with strong legs at the box office, there was still a lot of concern about its initial opening and budget. Given that most original Pixar films were put onto Disney+ for a while, many families might have gotten the idea to simply wait for new Pixar films to come out rather than going to see them in the theaters. While movies like Lightyear have performed well on the platform, it’s apparent that streaming hasn’t become the next stage of movie watching entirely and that the box office is still an important element. By neglecting that in favor of prioritizing sequels for so long and how they have treated some of their recent originals, Pixar might have issues getting people to see their movies. With the decline of influential films released, most don’t see Pixar movies as an event anymore, but as just another thing to show their kids.
Even their main animation studio, which has seen a lot of success with films like Moana and Zootopia, has seen similar issues as of late. Strange World, their latest release, was handicapped by poor marketing and a seeming indifference by the studio to see it perform in spite of its costs seemingly due. A similar occurrence happened with Encanto the year prior. While that film did eventually become a massive success, it was in spite of Disney and mostly due to audiences discovering the film after it left theaters. Their next film, the 100th-anniversary animated film Wish, has also had problems with how Disney has not given much of a marketing push as of late even with a lot banking on it to perform. Like with Pixar, it feels like Disney is somewhat indifferent to their original animated films and hasn’t put that much stock into them, especially with the announcement of sequels to Zootopia and Frozen indicating a similar mindset of priorities. However, even with sequels, what has been prioritized even more by the studio over its main animation department has been live-action remakes. Far more investment and public focus has gone into them and like with Marvel, while they were hugely successful and still retain some audience engagement, it feels like it has declined heavily as of late. The Little Mermaid remake, for example, made around 500 million and will probably end its run with 600 million. On a 250 million budget, that isn’t a bad run. However, given the performance of previous remakes averaging around a billion and how this was touted as a huge event film for the studio, it is a possibility that this would be seen as a disappointment. It doesn’t help that they are running out of films to remake as well. Given that these have been the largest non-Star Wars and Marvel live-action films out of the studio, their decline and the overall limited future of the concept is another issue with Disney banking on these projects long term. As with Pixar though, it just feels like Disney is treating the influential cornerstone of their studio poorly and they might find similar struggles as a result.
All of these problems with these parts of the company are compounded by the fact that, on average, Disney spends upwards of 250 million per movie. While some of the money goes into R&D for animation, most feel like it’s just thrown out there for quick-fix CGI, hasty reshoots, or as a base sum given without much thought into if all the money is needed. Even with their original films, they tend to spend so much that even a modest performance at the box office isn’t enough to cover the costs. Compare Elemental making 300 million on a 200-million-dollar budget to Puss in Boots The Last Wish making over 400 million on a 90-million-dollar budget. Other studios show that the production pipeline can not spend as much money and still make great-looking movies and Disney should probably take notes in this regard if their films keep performing the way they do.
At the moment, the industry is in flux and Disney cashed in a lot on their past trends. It really does seem like audiences have become pickier with what they want to see and that the guaranteed billion-dollar hits will likely become less prevalent. Other studios, while relying on franchises, are able to still produce a wide range of films that could compensate for a failed launch of a tentpole. Disney has focused mostly on these tentpoles and now that it is not a guarantee that they will make as much money as expected, it places the studio in an uncertain position. Disney used to have a more balanced approach with more mid-budgeted films from their Touchstone Pictures division that could help cover up spots. While the decline of mid-budget films is a larger issue in the industry, as I said before, Disney is the studio where it is the most notable since it practically become non-existent. It doesn’t help that the company has spent so much money on acquisitions such as Lucasfilm and especially the entirety of Fox as well as the likely debt brought on due to COVID to multiple sectors of the company.
In a way, the model is unsustainable. While Disney has a lot of areas of profit that will ensure they won’t be in serious trouble, their film business is one of their most visible and dynamic. In this regard, Disney has just grown too big for its britches, and rather than ensuring that they could keep momentum with what made them successful in the first place, they instead tripled down on whatever was successful at the time until the financial expectations for the company outgrew public interests.
From the corporate perspective, if Disney is unable to maintain a sense of consistency in terms of growth or sustainability, then they might be on rocky ground given how big they have gotten over the past few years. They are expected to continually make more and more and given their growth-based business, keeping the trend up is seeming less and less likely. This isn’t helped by the writers’ and actors’ strike stopping further production for the time being and the debts both from the many billion-dollar buyouts and COVID. Not maintaining form could result in trouble for the company. While Disney did have their animation and their brand franchises before, there was more of a broad focus. They rarely did animated sequels and their franchises were something they occasionally did. Now that they have focused a lot more on sequels and franchising and it has grown the company to higher heights than ever before. But that might come back to bite them due to the fact that people burn out from seeing the same things over and over.
Big changes might need to happen at Disney if this trend continues and while the company will likely never go under, it is possible that they won’t be the same given how big they have grown and how its unlikely to maintain that growth in its current circumstances.
